Most central banks across the world have around 5-7 years of tenure for the governor and deputy governors.
Headed by Urjit Patel, MPC for the fourth straight time kept the repo rate unchanged, at which it lends to the banks, at 6.25 per cent. The reverse repo, at which RBI borrows, will be 6 per cent.
The six-member monetary policy committee voted 5:1 for the decision, with only Ravindra Dholakia voting for a 0.25 per cent reduction in rates.
Retail inflation dipped marginally to 6.44 per cent in February, mainly on account of a slight easing in prices of food and fuel items though it remained above the Reserve Bank's comfort level of 6 per cent for the second month in a row. As per the government data released on Monday, the Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation was at 6.52 per cent in January and 6.07 per cent in February 2022. The retail inflation rate for the food basket worked out to be 5.95 per cent in February, marginally lower than 6 per cent in January.
The RBI has set up a panel to review ATM charges, and fees levied by banks.
However, it may still not change its stance on the policy rate as inflationary pressures are coming from high commodity prices.
RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said the central bank saw economic growth slowdown in February, prompting it to cut rates ahead of the curve and wondered why markets were surprised with the decision to pause rate reduction. Noting that there is a need for an "informed and objective discussion" on the country's economy, Das said the RBI would do "whatever is necessary" to address growth slowdown, spikes in inflation as well to ensure good health of banks and non-bank lenders. The apex bank went for five consecutive rate cuts starting in February this year, making it a cumulative reduction of 1.35 per cent.
The economic growth is likely to moderate to 6.1 per cent, slowest in over seven quarters, from 6.6 per cent last year same period.
With the 115 bps reduction in repo rate beginning February, banks have already transmitted 72 bps to the customers on fresh loans and some large banks have transmitted as much as 85 basis points.
The Reserve Bank on Friday retained the real GDP growth projection at 9.5 per cent for 2021-22 as domestic economic activity has started normalising with the ebbing of the second wave of the virus and the phased reopening of the economy. In the June monetary policy, the RBI had lowered the growth projection for 2021-22 to 9.5 per cent from 10.5 per cent estimated earlier. Unveiling the bi-monthly monetary policy, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Dad said high-frequency indicators suggest that consumption (both private and government); investment; and external demand are all on the path of regaining traction.
To a specific question on the change in RBI's stance from "neutral" to "accommodative", Das said it means that there will not be any rate hike from here on.
The economy may grow by around 7 per cent this financial year as estimated by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), say economists with various organisations. The first advance estimates for 2023-24 will be released on Friday by the National Statistical Organisation (NSO), an exercise done for calculating ratios such as the fiscal deficit. The interim Budget will be presented on February 1.
While efforts are being mounted on a war footing to arrest its spread, COVID-19 will impact economic activity in India directly through domestic lockdown. The second-round effects, it said, would operate through a severe slowdown in global trade and growth.
Wednesday's hawkish and essentially courageous decision underscores that Governor Urjit Patel will largely represent continuity, rather than a break, with the policies and approach of his predecessor, says Richard Iley.
From the Sensex pack, Nestle, Tata Steel, Tata Motors, Bharti Airtel, Larsen & Toubro, Power Grid, NTPC, Tata Consultancy Services, Tech Mahindra, Infosys and Axis Bank were the major gainers. Kotak Mahindra Bank, Maruti, Bajaj Finance, Mahindra & Mahindra and ICICI Bank were the laggards.
The services sector growth in India rose to a 13-year high in September on sharp increase in new business amid strong demand conditions, and job numbers continued to increase as overall business mood improved, a monthly survey said on Thursday. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Services PMI Business Activity Index rose from 60.1 in August to 61 in September, signalling a sharp upturn in output. In Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) parlance, a print above 50 means expansion while a score below 50 denotes contraction.
While the RBI can nudge things along, ultimately bank owners must recapitalise and review internal processes to ensure that a culture of irresponsible lending doesn't continue, says Devangshu Datta.
As FY20 Budget fiscal measures need to be better understood, a reversal of the stance back to neutral will allow MPC flexibility to respond to incoming data.
A combination of farm loan debt waivers by state governments and the implementation of the pay commission award could entail some fiscal slippages and pose a risk to inflation
In its Fifth Bi-monthly Monetary Policy Statement, 2017-18, RBI said the second quarter growth was lower than the one that was projected in the October review, and the recent increase in oil prices may have a negative impact on margins of firms and Gross Value Added (GVA) growth.
Wholesale price inflation remained in the negative territory for the fourth month in a row in July at (-)1.36 per cent, even though prices of food items, especially vegetables, skyrocketed. The inflation, however, has inched up from (-)4.12 per cent recorded in June fuelled by 62.12 per cent rise in vegetable prices. In July last year, wholesale price index (WPI) was 14.07 per cent.
With Deputy Governor Viral Acharya and another member Chetan Ghate voting for a status quo, RBI governor Shaktikanta Das and three others outvoted them for reduction in repo rate to 6.25 per cent from the existing 6.50 per cent.
Governor Urjit Patel and his deputies spoke to the media about the central bank's decision to raise the repo rate.
Many analysts over the past week have said the RBI has legroom to cut rates to the tune of 65 bps by June and some like Barclays and BofA have also spoken about the likelihood of an inter-meeting cut.
A likely easing in inflationary pressures in the forthcoming months will reopen the window for the RBI to once again prioritise growth and ease its interest rates.
RBI has pegged the GVA growth of 7.6 per cent for the current fiscal and 7.9 per cent the year after
RBI retained the GDP growth for the financial year 2018-19 at 7.4 per cent.
Reserve Bank of India Governor Shaktikanta Das on Friday said the country's economy is an island of stability despite two Black Swan events and multiple shocks. "In an ocean of high turbulence and uncertainty, Indian economy is an island of macroeconomic and financial stability," Das told reporters during the post policy press conference. He said the financial stability, macroeconomic stability and resilience of growth is being witnessed despite two Black Swan events happening one after the other and multiple shocks.
Delivering a public speech hours after the RBI launched a rescue act for Yes Bank on March 6, Governor Shaktikanta Das reiterated the RBI's affirmation to do whatever was needed to combat the coronavirus impact. On that day, India had only one confirmed COVID-19 infection, the World Health Organisation was five days off from declaring it as a pandemic and the financially debilitating lockdowns were not even on the horizon. Das' promise on efforts to mitigate COVID-19 impact appeared as a footnote in news reports from the event.
In the last three years, public sector banks have responded to the RBI's policy rates more strongly than private banks.
The Reserve Bank of India's interest rate decision, domestic macroeconomic data and global trends will dictate terms in the equity markets this week, analysts said. Trading activity of Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) will also influence markets, they added. "The Indian market will be closely monitoring the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting scheduled for June 6-8, 2023. Aside from that, market participants will be keeping an eye on the progress of monsoon," said Pravesh Gour, Senior Technical Analyst, Swastika Investmart Ltd.
If this turns into reality, India's gross domestic product (GDP) growth will be the lowest since 2012-13, which could severely hit job creation and income growth in the near term.
Tomorrow's review could also turn out be the last policy anchored by Rajan if the proposed Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is put in place before the next review due on August 9.
However, the RBI is still not in a mood to issue an OMO calendar, which was the expectation in some sections of the market.
Instead of a rate hike, or even a pause, there could be a window for the RBI for an interest rate cut
The RBI on Friday said the impact of coronavirus outbreak on the economy will depend on the intensity, spread and duration of the deadly virus even as the central bank refrained from projecting any numbers for growth and inflation amid the widespread uncertainty. While announcing the seventh bi-monthly monetary policy statement for 2019-20, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said that in view of the impact of coronavirus pandemic, the growth projections for 4.7 per cent for the fourth quarter of 2019-20 and 5 per cent for the full fiscal are "now at risk".
Seeking to dispel possible notions of the RBI not having done enough by opting for a pause for the second consecutive time, Das said the RBI has a wide dashboard of instruments beyond rates that can be deployed.
The supply-side driven inflationary pressures, from food or fuel prices, would be mitigated by a neutral stance and a prolonged pause on rates, says Gaurav Kapur.
RBi pushes for reinvigorating private investments, clearing infra bottlenecks and providing big thrust to Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana.
The finance ministry expects a broad-based moderation in inflationary pressures on the back of an anticipated reduction in food prices as a result of the uptick in summer sowing. The retail inflation rate remained stubbornly clung to the 5 per cent mark in seven of the past eight months. "Core inflation is trending downwards, indicating a broad-based moderation in price pressures... Driven by strong domestic growth and benign global commodity prices, core inflation is declining continuously.
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